BA (Hons.), 1983, Social Psychology with Cognitive Studies, University of Sussex.
PhD., 1988, Cognitive Psychology, University of London (UCL).
Currently I am a self-employed consultant and analyst in decision and policy making. I am also a Visiting Research Fellow in the Department of Management, Durham University Business School and an Associate Faculty member of Leeds University Business School.
Previously I have held faculty positions at Durham University, University of Leicester and Bilkent University (Ankara, Turkey); and research positions at Bristol Polytechnic, University College London, City University (London), and Erasmus University (Rotterdam). I have been involved in several ESRC research projects, some as PI.
I have conducted (or I am currently conducting) research and consultancy for the European Food Safety Authority, the Department of Business Innovation and Skills, the Manpower Services Commission, EUROSTAT, Clerical Medical Insurance, and the Yale Global Justice Program.
I am software review editor for the Journal of Behavioural Decision Making and formerly an Associate Editor for the Journal of Economic Psychology. I am currently editing a special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting.
Individual, group and societal judgment and decision making (JDM); consumer behaviour and economic psychology; subjective probability and risk; judgmental forecasting and expectation formation; cognitive expertise; decision-aiding, particularly regarding group JDM; aggregation of judgment; advice; cognitive development and psycholinguistics; effects of mood and emotion on cognition; causes and consequences of overconfidence; expertise; quantitative and qualitative research methods.
Consumer behaviour and economic psychology; judgment and decision making (both the psychology of, and aiding and supporting); cognitive, social and developmental psychology; psycholinguisitics; forecasting methods; research methods and statistics.
“Children's Notational Competence”, August 1988. Supervisor, Professor Annette Karmiloff-Smith, MRC Cognitive Development Unit, London.
Wright, G. and Bolger, F. (1992). Expertise and Decision Support (Eds.). New York: Plenum.
Bolger, F. and Karmiloff-Smith, A. (1990). The development of communicative competence. Archives de Psychologie, 58, 257-273.
Rowe, G., Wright, G., and Bolger, F. (1991). Delphi: A re-evaluation of research and theory. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 39, 3, 235-251.
Bolger, F. and Harvey, N. (1993). Context sensitive heuristics in statistical reasoning. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 46A, 779-811.
Bolger, F. and Wright, G. (1993). Coherence and calibration in expert probability judgement. OMEGA: International Journal of Management Science, 21, 629-644.
Bolger, F. and Wright, G. (1994). Assessing the quality of expert judgment: Issues and analysis. Decision Support Systems, 11, 1-24.
Bolger, F. and Wright, G. (1994). The quality of expert judgment: Issues and analysis. Expert Systems, 11, 149-158.
Harvey, N, Bolger, F. and McClelland, A. (1994). On the nature of expectations. British Journal of Psychology, 85, 203-229.
Wright, G., Rowe, G., Bolger, F. and Gammack, J. (1994). Coherence, calibration and expertise in judgmental probability forecasting. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 57, 1-25.
Bolger, F. (1995). Cognitive expertise research and knowledge engineering. The Knowledge Engineering Review, 10, 3-19.
Bolger, F. and Harvey, N. (1995). Judging the probability that the next point in an observed time-series will be below, or above, a given value. Journal of Forecasting, 14, 597-607.
Harvey, N. and Bolger, F. (1996). Graphs versus tables: Effects of data presentation format on judgmental forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 119-137.
Suantak, L., Bolger, F. and Ferrell, W.R. (1996). The hard-easy effect in subjective probability calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 201-221.
Harvey, N. and Bolger, F. (2001). Collecting information: Optimizing outcomes, screening options, or facilitating discrimination? Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 54A, 269-301.
Wright. G. and Bolger, F. and Rowe, G. (2002). An empirical test of the relative validity of expert and lay judgments of risk. Risk Analysis, 22, 1107-1122.
Bolger, F. and Önkal-Atay, D. (2004). The effects of feedback on judgmental interval predictions. International Journal of Forecasting, 20, 29-39.
Önkal, D. and Bolger, F. (2004). Provider-user differences in perceived usefulness of forecasting formats. Omega: International Journal of Management Science, 32, 31-39.
Colman, A.M., Pulford, B. D. and Bolger, F. (2007). Asymmetric dominance effects in games with and without dominant strategies. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 104, 193-206.
Bolger, F., Pulford, B.D. and Colman, A.M. (2008). Market Entry Decisions: Effects of Absolute and Relative Confidence. Experimental Psychology, 55, 113-120.
Bolger, F., Önkal, D., and Gönül, M.S. (2008). Sağlık hizmetlerinin sağlanmasında tahmin üretim ve kullanımı (Forecasting in health-service provision). İktisat, İşletme ve Finans (Economics, Business and Finance), 23, 5-16 (now indexed on SSCI, see www.iif.com.tr/index.php/iif).
Bolger, F., Stranieri, A., Wright, G. and Yearwood, J. (2011). Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78, 1671-1680
Bolger, F. and Wright, G. (2011). Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from social psychological research. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78, 1500-1513
Bolger, F., Hanea, A., Mosbach-Schulz, O., Oakley, J., O'Hagan, A., Rowe, G., and Wenholt, M. (2014). Procedures, methods and case studies. In EFSA Journal 2014: Guidance on Expert Knowledge Elicitation in Food and Feed Safety Risk Assessment. Parma, Italy. European Food Safety Authority (EFSA).
Bolger, F. and Wenholt, M. (2014). Principles and practice of selecting and motivating experts. In EFSA Journal 2014: Guidance on Expert Knowledge Elicitation in Food and Feed Safety Risk Assessment. Parma, Italy. European Food Safety Authority (EFSA).
Bolger, F. and Rowe, G. (2014). Delphi: Somewhere between Scylla and Charybdis? PNAS, 111(41), E4284–E4284.
Bolger, F. and Rowe, G. (2015). The aggregation of expert judgment: Do good things come to those who weight? Risk Analysis, 35(1), 5-11.
Bolger, F. and Rowe, G. (2015). There is data, and then there is data: Only experimental evidence will determine the utility of differential weighting of expert judgment. Risk Analysis, 35(1), 21-26.
Bayindir, M., Bolger, F. and Say, B. An investigation of the role of some person and situation variables in multiple cue probability learning. Accepted subject to minor revisions, Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology.
Chapters in books
Bolger, F., Wright, G., Rowe, G., Gammack, J., and Wood, R. (1989). LUST for life: Developing expert systems for life assurance underwriting. In N. Shadbolt (Ed.), Research and Development in Expert Systems VI, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 128-139.
Bolger, F. and Wright, G. (1992). Reliability and validity in expert judgment. In G. Wright and F. Bolger (Eds.) Expertise and Decision Support. New York: Plenum. 47-76.
Rowe, G., Wright, G. and Bolger, F. (1992). Studies on judgmental probability forecasting. In J. Geweke (Ed.), Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty: New Models and Empirical Findings. Kluwer: Dordrecht. 143-149.
Wright, G., Bolger, F. and Rowe, G. (1992). Judgment in decision-making and forecasting. In F. Heller (Ed.) Decision-Making and Leadership. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 213-231.
Bolger, F. and Harvey, N. (1994). Rationality of expectations in judgmental extrapolation of time series. In J.-P. Caverni, M. Bar-Hillel, F.H. Barron and H. Jungermann (Eds.) Contributions to Decision Making I. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. 121-134.
McClelland, A. and Bolger, F. (1994). The calibration of subjective probabilities: Theories and models 1980-1993. In G. Wright and P. Ayton (Eds.), Subjective Probability. Chichester: Wiley. 453-481.
Bolger, F., and Harvey, N. (1998). Heuristics and biases in judgmental forecasting. In P. Goodwin and G. Wright (Eds.), Forecasting with Judgment. Wiley.
Antonides, G., Bolger, F and Trip, G. (2006). Classroom experiments in behavioral economics. In M. Altman (Ed.). Handbook of Contemporary Behavioral Economics. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe.
Wright G., Bolger F, and Rowe G. (2009). Expert judgment of probability and risk. In, T. Williams, K. J. Sunnevag and K. Samset (eds.), Making essential choices with scant information: Front-end decision-making in major projects, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke.
Technical Reports and Working Papers
Wright, G., Ferrell, W. and Bolger, F. (1990). The role of judgment in forecasting. Part of report to Eurostat for Phase 1 of DOSES project B6: Linking Informal Knowledge and Expertise to Forecasting Models (LIKELY).
Bolger, F. (1990). Using Graphical modelling techniques for forecasting. Part of report to Eurostat for Phase 2 of DOSES project B6: LIKELY.
Wright, G., Rowe, G. and Bolger, F. (1991). Expert systems in insurance. In Marketwatch. Andover: Winchester White Ltd.
Bolger, F., Sutcliffe, A., Ayton, P. and Sparks, P. (1996). Cognitive models of risk-related decision making: A critical review and synthesis. Report to the U.K. Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF).
Bolger, F., Sutcliffe, A.G. and Ayton, P. (1996). Towards a common cognitive model of food-risk decision making. Report to MAFF.
Bolger, F., Ayton, P., Sutcliffe, A.G., and Sparks, P. (1997). A study of food-risk perception and its relation to purchasing behaviour. Report to MAFF.
Hardman, D., Bolger, F., Ayton, P., Sutcliffe, A.G., and Sparks, P. (1997). The effects of food-related risk messages on information search and choice. Report to MAFF.
Bolger, F., Franses, P.H.B.F., and Antonides, G. (1999). Does the index of consumer sentiment only measure expectations? Rotterdam Institute of Business Economic Studies (RIBES) report No. 9927 (ISBN 90-5086-340-X).
Bolger, F. (1999). A study of the policies underlying food-purchase decisions: Are potential risk factors a consideration? RIBES report No. 9946 (ISBN 90-5086-363-9).
Bolger, F. and Antonides, G. (2001). Dual processes in consumer choice. RIBES report No. 2001-01. (ISBN 90-5086-384-1).
Bolger, F. (2011). An experimental study of the nature of consumer expectations. Working paper 2011-05, Centre for Behavioral Economics and Finance, Durham University Business School.
Bolger, F., Hanea, A., Mosbach-Schulz, O., Oakley, J., O'Hagan, A., Rowe, G., and Wenholt, M. (2014). Guidance on Expert Knowledge Elicitation in Food and Feed Safety Risk Assessment. Parma, Italy. European Food Safety Authority (EFSA).
Bolger, F., Payne, R., Rowe, G. and Shubert, E. (2014). A Delphi study on policies to reduce illicit financial flows from developing countries. Yale Global Justice Program and AAP, New Haven, CT.
Book and Software Reviews
Bolger, F. (1994). Review of J. Frank Yates (Ed.) Risk-Taking Behavior. Chichester: Wiley. 1992. British Journal of Psychology, 85, 556-557.
Bolger, F. (1996). Sure means for dealing with uncertain information. Review of M. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion, Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 9, 147-148.
Bolger, F. (2000). Two steps forward, one step back? Review of MINITAB 12 statistics package. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 363-364.
Citations of my published work: In ISI journals, 551 (counted on Web of Science, April 2013). Total 1518 (counted on Google Scholar, June 2015). H-index 17.
Conference and Invited Papers
I have presented more than 60 papers at international conferences, some of these papers have published abstracts. I have also been invited to participate in a number of workshops and symposia and to give papers at several universities including the Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium (twice); Leeds University Business School (twice); University College London (thrice); Westminster Business School; Kingston University; Bosphorus University, Istanbul, Turkey; Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey; the Tinbergen Institute, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; and the Catholic University of Brabant, Tilburg, the Netherlands. For a list of presentations from 2001 please see Appendix.