- 14:00 - 15:00
- Professor Nigel Harvey
- Leeds University Business School, Maurice Keyworth Building, Room 1.03
- Who can attend:
- Staff, students, alumni and external guests
Forecasting and monitoring time series in business and finance: the role of judgment
People frequently have to deal with information that appears or has appeared over time. In business and finance, this information is often numerical and may be represented graphically. Generally speaking, psychologists have not shown much interest in how people deal with this type of information – indeed, students, who otherwise received a fairly thorough grounding in statistics, typically learn nothing about time series analysis.
Professor Harvey will provide an overview of some recent work: discussing the role of judgment in forecasting, both in unaided judgmental forecasting and in judgmental adjustment of statistical forecasts. (Both these approaches are common in demand forecasting for supply chain management). He’ll also consider tasks in which people have to decide whether to act on the basis of information provided in time series. For example, financial traders may need to assess how risky it would be trade, given the behaviour of a price series. Finally, I’ll outline some research into tasks in which people have to monitor time series to determine whether there has been a particular type of structural break, such as a change in the level or variance of the series. These types of change are important to detect in many domains, such as medicine and finance.
Registration not required
For further information, please contact the Research Office at research.LUBS@leeds.ac.uk