Research seminars

CIBUL holds a series of seminars and workshops for faculty and PhD students. These workshops include both formal seminars and informal research talks. For more information please contact Vicky Weeks (v.c.weeks@leeds.ac.uk). 

2018

Mike Wright

Lost in Translation? Independent Boards and Blockholder Appropriation

Wednesday 21st March
11:00-12:30 (followed by a buffet lunch at 12:30)
LUBS 1.44

Abstract

Emerging economies are oftentimes characterised by state capitalism, concentrated ownership and constrained resources, where firms face underinvestment due to resource misappropriation. Even the adoption of Anglo-American corporate governance practices may result in sub-optimal outcomes. We draw on the multiple agency perspective and research on cross-national governance to examine how independent directors, as agents with multiple roles, might mitigate blockholder appropriation. Using unique panel data from Russian publicly traded firms where the government and the business elite are predominant blockholders, we find that independent directors in private firms are less effective in mitigating blockholder appropriation than in state-owned enterprises. We further investigate board independence effects driven by the exposure to three international governance boundary conditions, namely Russian Multinational Enterprises, foreign listings of Russian firms, and foreign independent directors on Russian boards. Our study focuses on the agents that might mitigate principal-principal conflicts, explores when ineffective governance can be mitigated, and contributes to research on how governance practices developed in advanced economies get translated in emerging market economies.

Dylan Sutherland and Hu Zheyuan

What is the Impact of Overseas Technology Seeking Acquisitions on Domestic Innovation Performance in Chinese MNEs?

Wednesday 25th April
14:00-15:30
Liberty Building SR G.28

Abstract

The question of whether emerging market multinational enterprises (EMNEs) undertake ‘strategic asset seeking’ has attracted great interest in International Business (IB) studies. Many have argued, for example, that EMNEs acquire intangible strategic assets via foreign M&As with a view to rapidly incorporating foreign know-how to improve domestic innovation performance and thus subsequently improve their ‘catch-up’ capabilities. To date, however, only a few studies, mostly restricted to single cases, have examined the impacts of EMNE acquisitions on subsequent innovation performance. This research uses propensity score matching methodologies to investigate how technology seeking acquisitions affect innovation in Chinese (C)MNE parent firms. Our results suggest such acquisitions do lead to outperformance in innovation in CMNEs vis a vis similar domestic firms not making acquisitions. In addition, we consider how the characteristics of the acquiring parent firm influence its subsequent innovation performance. We look at the impacts of ownership (involvement of state versus private owner), business group affiliation and international experience. We find the latter two characteristics have a positive impact on the extent to which CMNEs can benefit from their acquisitions in terms of innovation performance (measured in both number of patents and citations). We discuss implications for better understanding current conceptual debates in the EMNE literature, such as the updated Linkage-Leverage-Learning model (Mathews, 2006; 2017) and the ‘springboard perspective’ (Luo and Tung, 2017).

Professor Niron Hashai

R&D INVESTMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION – A COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP

Wednesday 6th June
14:00-16:00
LUBS 1.31

Joint work with: Ohad Ref, Ono Academic College

ABSTRACT
The conventional view in international business is that, other things being equal, firms that invest more in research and development (R&D) are likely to be more internationalized.  In the current study, we show that this relationship is more complex than previously thought. First, we show that firms need to investment significantly more in R&D, relative to their industry peers, to have a higher likelihood to expand to new foreign markets.  Second, we show that, at some point, firms with extensively high R&D investments relative to their industry peers, reduce their likelihood to expand to new foreign markets. Third, we show that, underperforming firms with lower R&D investments than their industry peers also have a higher likelihood to expand to new foreign markets, and that the lower are these firms' R&D investments.

BIO
Niron Hashai is an Associate Professor at the Arison School of Business, the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya, Israel and the Albertson-Waltuch Chair in Business Administration at the School of Business Administration at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Professor Hashai obtained his BSc in Computer Sciences from the Technion and his MBA and PhD from Tel Aviv University. His research interests include: theory of the multinational corporation, technological innovation, diversification, and growth patterns of high technology firms. His research was published in top strategy, management, international business and innovation journals, including: Journal of International Business Studies, Journal of Management, Research Policy, Strategic Management Journal and Strategy Science. Professor Hashai serves on the boards of the Journal of International Business Studies, and the Global Strategy Journal, among others.

Professor Hashai is also a visiting Associate Professor at New York University, the Startup Nation visiting fellow at the Blavatnik School of Government, the University of Oxford, The Peter J. Buckley International Visiting Fellow at Leeds University Business School and an associate member at the John H. Dunning Research Centre, University of Reading.

Professor Hashai is co-founder of HUstart – the Hebrew University entrepreneurship center and the Israel Strategy Conference (ISC).

Professor Ammon Salter

Research Seminar – details of paper to follow

Wednesday 12th September
11:00-12:30
Room G.03, Cromer Terrace

Professor Ammon Salter has published a number of highly cited papers on openess and he will present a paper about innovation within the MNE – further details to follow.

2017

Professor Davide Castellani

Explaining the complexity of foreign operations: The role of managerial and governance characteristics (with G. Békés, G. Benito and B. Muraközy).

Location: LUBS 1.44
Date: Thursday 30th November
Time: 15:00-16:30

Abstract

Venturing abroad provide business opportunities for firms, but internationalization also increases the risks and difficulties of doing and profiting from business. The more opportunities that are pursued simultaneously, the higher the complexity, especially as firms simultaneously expand their geographical footprint and add new ways of operating internationally. Firms differ in their willingness and capacity to take on and manage such complexity. In this study, we examine the association between managerial and governance characteristics and the complexity of foreign operations. Specifically, we study how differences across firms regarding characteristics of their top management teams and CEOs as well as their governance attributes, explain firms’ proclivity to take on different levels of internationalization complexity. Using unique data from the EFIGE survey, our results suggest that management and governance indeed matter for explaining the degree of complexity of firms’ foreign operations.

Professor Christian Asmussen and Professor Niron Hashai

The Co-evolution of International Scope and Technological Knowledge

Location: Charles Thackrah SR4 1.04
Date: Wednesday 25th October
Time: 09:30-11:30

Abstract

Two sets of relationships permeate research on technological knowledge and international scope for multinational firms: technological knowledge stimulates international expansion; and internationalization leads to technological enhancements. In this study we develop a model of the dynamic process in which both technological knowledge and international scope co-evolve. The model distinguishes between local, regional and global spans of firms' international scope and technology development efforts to predict the existence of several archetypical effects: (1) Saturation - where the current level of either international scope or technological knowledge limits their future expansion. (2) Internalization – where the current level of technological knowledge pushes for greater internationalization within given geographic boundaries.  (3) Fungibility – where the current level of technological knowledge influences internationalization across geographic boundaries. (4) Learning – where the firm's current geographic scope affects technological learning within geographic boundaries, and (5) Remote learning – where the firm's current geographic scope affects technological learning across geographic boundaries. The combination of these archetypes allows us identify multiple sets of complex co-evolution trajectories of international scope and technological knowledge and to offer a holistic view of different strands of internationalization theories. These relationships are tested on a unique, large longitudinal sample of Japanese multinational firms which includes comprehensive data on the geographic locations of these firms' operations as well as on the geographic location of their technological patenting.

Professor Tamer Cavusgil

Rigor, Relevance and Impact in International Business Research: Suggestions for Carrying out Impactful Research Projects

Location: LUBS 1.06
Date: Tuesday 24th October
Time: 13:00-14:30

Abstract:

Business practitioners complain about the esoteric nature of academic publications. Some academics argue that too many studies lack ‘scholarly robustness.’ What are their concerns? Are theoretical rigor and practical relevance competing objectives? How do we craft more balanced and impactful articles? How do build theoretical robustness into our research projects?

In addition to addressing these questions, Professor Cavusgil will suggest ways in which these concerns can be addressed. 

Dr Chris Jones

The Use of Tax Havens by British Multinationals After The Financial Crisis: ‘Business as Usual’

Location: LUBS 1.44
Date: Thursday 12th October
Time: 11:30-13:00

Abstract

We investigate the use of tax havens by British multinational enterprises (MNEs) before and after the global financial crisis of 2008. We find that in the post crisis period, British MNEs increased their subsidiaries in tax haven locations as compared with the pre-crisis period. This suggests that recent media attention on the tax affairs of British based MNEs has had little impact on their activities. It seems to be “business as usual” in terms of tax avoidance. Our analysis takes advantage of a large firm-level dataset which allows the estimation of a variety of panel data models. We also find evidence of a causal link between austerity imposed upon Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and the use of tax havens by MNEs.

Professor Mark Casson

The Theory of International Business: The Role of Economic Models

Location: LUBS 1.44
Date: Thursday 5th October
Time: 14:00-16:00

Abstract:

This paper reviews the scope for economic modelling in international business. It argues for a multi-level theory based on classical internalisation theory. The theory extends the ‘systems approach’ to the multinational enterprise in which modular activities, such as production, marketing and R&D, are linked by flows of semi-processed products and proprietary knowledge. It is shown how this theory can be extended from the firm level to the industry level in order to analyse inter-firm co-operation and rivalry. The theory can be extended to higher levels (e.g. the global economy) and lower levels (e.g. personal relationships within plants and offices).

2015

Professor Christos Pitelis

Appropriability, Legacy-informed Entrepreneurial Imagination, and Cross-Border Organization
Professor Christos Pitelis, University of Bath

Location: Seminar Room 1.44
Date: 12 March 2015
Time: 14.00-16.00

Abstract

This paper explores how entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial managers and organizations imagine future states of the world and embark upon a process of creation, co-creation, and development of cross-border markets and supporting business ecosystems that help them realize their visions. This process is examined conceptually and by drawing on historical case studies. These show how the emergence of the multinational enterprise (MNE) can be attributed to imaginative entrepreneurs, motivated by appropriability of returns on their perceived advantages, actions, and action potential, and who act upon their images and visions in order to shape, create and co-create their desired realities, often informed by their historical experiences. We claim that our approach challenges the extant theory of the MNE and helps appreciate better phenomena such as MNEs without apparent differential ‘ownership advantages’ and born-global firms.

Aline Gitignon

Organizational Learning through Alliance Secondments: Managing the Spin-Out, Spin-In Paradox in Cross-Sector Partnersh
Aline Gatignon, INSEAD

Location: Seminar Room 1.32
Date: 23 April 2015
Time: 14.00-16.00

Aline is currently a PhD candidate in Strategy at INSEAD. She will be joining the Multinational Management Department of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in July 2015.  Aline studies how organizations can develop their knowledge, skills and capabilities through cross-sector partnerships in emerging markets (i.e., alliances between private sector firms and public or non-profit sector organizations). Her dissertation builds on three hand-collected databases combining archival, interview and survey data. The empirical contexts she studies are cosmetics and banking in Brazil as well as logistics and healthcare partnerships in Africa, Latin America and Asia.Organizations are increasingly using external secondments to alliance partners to develop knowledge and skills: they temporarily detach employees to learn under unfamiliar conditions (‘spin-out’) and subsequently reintegrate them into the firm (‘spin-in’). The link between employee learning processes and alliance outcomes is critical to this process, yet it is so far insufficiently understood. Drawing on organizational learning and identity theory, I study how the intensity of coordination with the partner during secondment projects impacts two employee-level outcomes: 1) learning and 2) reintegration. I then explore how these employee-level outcomes feed into project success for the firm. I use mixed methods to develop and then test hypotheses, drawing on interview, archival and survey data on alliance secondments within a10-year partnership between global logistics provider TNT and the United Nations World Food Program. The results reveal a paradox: while intense coordination promotes employee learning during the spin-out, it hinders employee reintegration during the spin-in, for two reasons. First, knowledge developed through intense coordination is more difficult to leverage into employees’ usual professional environment. Second, intense coordination increases employees’ attachment to their partnership identity, creating a misalignment with the firm’s identity and values upon their return. Firms can become more cognizant of this paradox over time, and can mitigate its effects by fostering a sense that employees’ secondment experience is valued.

2014

David Midgley

Mindscapes across Landscapes: Diverse Culture Archetypes in Japan, USA, China and India
David Midgley, Insead

Date: 25 April 2014
Time: 13.00
Location: 1.44

Abstract: 
Most culture-related research in international business aggregates people within a country into a single, homogeneous, national culture. But, in reality, there are often large differences among individuals within a country. Similarly, people with similar values are often found across national boundaries. Using Schwartz culture values and demographic data from the World Values Survey 2005, we find significant within-country heterogeneity and between-country commonality in Schwartz values. Our novel archetypal analysis method identifies four culture archetypes in Japan, USA and China, and six in India. The existence of both transnational and within-country archetypes suggests the need to recognize culture as a global or a sub-national phenomenon rather than as a national construct. Our results show that international business researchers and practitioners may need cultural schema that better reflect the real world of similarities and differences within and between countries.

Bio: 
Professor Midgley is a graduate in science, management and marketing from the Universities of Salford and Bradford in England. He was previously a Professor at the Australian Graduate School of Management and a long term visiting Professor at UCLA. He has been an invited scholar at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. David Midgley’s latest book is The Innovation Manual: Integrated Strategies and Practical Tools for Bringing Value Innovation to the Market, (Wiley, 2008). www.theinnovationmanual.com This book provides the essentials of innovation for the practising manager based on an extensive synthesis of research and best practice. He has over 100 publications, including papers in leading journals such as the Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Information Technology, Journal of International Business Studies, Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of Marketing, Marketing Science, Management Science, Organization Science, and Research Policy. He has also served on the editorial boards of the Journal of Consumer Research and the International Journal of Research in Marketing, . His principal areas of research are innovation and strategy.

Professor Ulf Andersson

Professor Ulf Andersson, editor of the Journal of International Business Studies
Professor Ulf Andersson, Copenhagen Business School & Maldaren University.

Date: 30 April 2014

Time: 18.00
Location: 1.32
Followed by a reception in LUBS Foyer

Professor Ulf Andersson, Editor of the Journal of International Business Studies conducted the first seminar on publishing.  The Journal of International Business Studies is an FT45 journal that publishes research from various fields including international management, finance, marketing and economics.

Professor Henrik Sattler

Brand–Country Image (BCI) Fit: A New Metric to Evaluate Brand Positioning Strategies
Professor Henrik Sattler, University of Hamburg

Date: 14 May 2014
Time: 14.00
Location: Leeds University Business School 1.44

Abstract: 
Brand positioning strategies must determine the image attributes that produce favorable brand images. Although markets continue to globalize, local consumer culture or the culture of one’s home country remains a powerful influence, and consumers continue to prefer local consumption imagery. Managers thus face the question of how to identify image attributes that associate a brand’s positioning with local consumer culture. This article introduces a new diagnostic metric to evaluate brand positioning strategies: brand–country image fit (BCI-Fit). It measures the extent to which consumers in a specific country perceive a brand’s image as congruent with their home country’s image. The authors conceptualize and empirically analyze BCI-Fit for more than 1,000 brands and three countries, using Young & Rubicam’s Brand Asset Valuator data base and additional consumer survey data. They examine the impact of the proposed metric on consumers’ brand evaluations and analyze several moderators (e.g., variety seeking weakens the impact). Because the BCI-Fit metric employs a multi-attribute measurement approach, it provides guidance on which image dimensions and in which conditions managers may (re)position their brands.

Professor Bronwyn Hall

The Impact of Foreign Pharmaceutical Patents on Innovation in Chile Bronwyn H. Hall (with Maria Jose Abud and Christian Helmers)
Professor Bronwyn Hall

Date: 20 May 2014
Time: 15.00
Location: 1.09

Bronwyn H. Hall is Professor in the Graduate School at the University of California at Berkeley and Professor of Economics of Technology and Innovation at the University of Maastricht, Netherlands. She is a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Institute for Fiscal Studies, London and a Visiting Fellow at the National Institute of Economics and Social Research, London. For 30 years, she was the founding partner of TSP International, an econometric software firm. She received a B.A. in physics from Wellesley College in 1966 and a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University in 1988.

Professor Hall has published articles on the economics and econometrics of technical change and innovation in journals such as Econometrica, the American Economic Review, the Rand Journal of Economics, and Research Policy. She is also the editor with Nathan Rosenberg of the Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in the Elsevier series. Her current research includes comparative analysis of the U.S. and European patent systems, the use of patent citation data for the valuation of intangible (knowledge) assets, comparative firm‐level investment and innovation studies, measuring the returns to R&D and innovation at the firm level, analysis of technology policies such as R&D subsidies and tax incentives, and of recent changes in patenting behavior in the semiconductor and computer industries. She has made substantial contributions to applied economic research via the creation of software for econometric estimation and of firm‐level datasets for the study of innovation, including the widely used NBER dataset for U.S. patents.

Abstract:
Foreign multinational companies account for around 95% of pharmaceutical patents filed in Chile between 1991 and 2010. These patents account for over half of all patents filed in Chile during the past two decades. This study analyzes the impact of foreign pharmaceutical patenting behavior on the domestic pharmaceutical industry in Chile.

We analyze the patent filing strategies of foreign pharmaceutical companies and compare the characteristics of drugs sold on the Chilean market that are patented by foreign multinationals to those that are patented by domestic companies or not patented. In addition, the study investigates whether and in which way foreign pharmaceutical companies 'work' these patents and analyze the effect of this choice on domestic companies behavior, in terms of drugs developed and marketed.

The analysis relies on a mapping of patents filed in Chile to pharmaceutical products, as well as information on the way foreign companies 'work' their patents. To empirically measure whether and in which way firms 'work' their patents, the study combines information on patents and trademarks at the product level with information from the public health register.

The results indicate a negative association between the share of foreign patents and the number of domestic drugs even within broad therapeutic classes. Foreign firms rely in particular increasingly on the filing of "secondary" pharmaceutical patents (patents on modified compounds, formulations, dosages, particular medical uses etc.) to extend basic patent protection in breadth and length to keep domestic generic producers off the market.

Professor Christian Ringle

The Assessment of Heterogeneity Revisited: Across Group Similarities and within Group Differences
Professor Christian Ringle, Hamburg University of Technology, Germany, and University of Newcastle, Australia

Date: 12 September 2014 
Time: 12.00 – 13:30 
Location: 1.44 

International business research analyses, compares and explains heterogeneity between countries or cultures. This research looks at the evidence for observed and latent heterogeneity within empirical data. Examining data for two specific a priori defined groups reveals only modest differences. However, latent mixture PLS path modeling (FIMIX-PLS) uncovers two different segments within each group. This analysis demonstrates substantial differences across these segments—but a surprising similarity across groups. An importance performance matrix analysis illustrates these differences and is a foundation to develop managerial implications. Overall, this study highlights the potential for heterogeneity in international business research.

Professor Joanna Oxley

Offshore Outsourcing and Innovation In The Mobile Phone Industry (joint with Juan Alcacer and Ramon Lecuona)
Professor Joanne Oxley, University of Toronto

Date: 17 September 2014 
Time: 13.45 – 15.15 
Location: Leeds University Business School 1.31

Presentation abstract:
We document the evolution of outsourcing strategy in an industry that has witnessed a dramatic rise in offshore outsourcing and the emergence of a multitude of specialized suppliers over the past decade. Through analysis of a comprehensive and detailed dataset of supply relationships for the design and manufacture of all mobile handsets introduced worldwide from the beginning of the outsourcing trend, we explore the evolving logic guiding outsourcing strategy in the industry, and trace the effect of offshore outsourcing on the innovative performance of leading producers and suppliers.

Joanne Oxley is Professor of Strategic Management at the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, Canada. Her research lies at the intersection of strategy and international business, exploring topics related to inter-firm collaboration, outsourcing, and the impact of international differences in economic and institutional environments on firm strategy and performance. Joanne's publications have appeared in many leading academic journals, and she currently serves as an Associate Editor at Strategic Management Journal and Management Science, and as Consulting Editor at the Journal of International Business Studies.

Professor Giana Eckhardt

Buddhism and Consumption
Professor Giana Eckhardt, Royal Holloway-University of London

Date: Friday 3 October 2014
Time: 12.00
Location: Leeds University Business School 1.44

Abstract:Buddhism as a belief system views important constructs in marketing in ways not seen in the literature to date. For example, Buddhism emphasizes the importance of eliminating desire for material goods (marketing tries to stimulate this desire), and the perils of becoming attached to material possessions (marketing encourages attachment in a variety of forms, most notably brand loyalty). Past research has noted that Buddhism affects consumer's behavior to a larger extent than other spiritual belief systems. What does Buddhist consumption look like? This is investigated in China, where Buddhism has been the primary spiritual belief system for thousands of years. We take an ethnographic approach, focusing on Buddhist monks as well as Buddhist consumers in urban, Eastern China. We supplement in-depth interviews with observation and immersion in a variety of new and old Buddhist sites. Our findings focus on the nature of materialism, consumer desire and product/brand relationships, which differ significantly to our understanding of these constructs to date. These findings allow us to question and redefine core theories in marketing. This is especially important as the influence of Buddhism is spreading around the world, and in the West is often thought to be a solution to overconsumption.

Professor Jean Francois Hennart

European Differences in the Extent of Family Firm Internationalization
Professor Jean Francois Hennart, Tilburg University

Date: Tuesday 21 October 2014
Time: 15.00
Location: Leeds University Business School 1.44

Abstract:
Most firms around the world are owned and run by families. Yet, surprisingly, there is only limited research on whether this form of governance encourages or discourages internationalization and empirical evidence to date is inconclusive. While most of the literature has argued that family control discourages internationalization, we suggest that this only applies to firms that sell mass-market products requiring local production and adaptation, and hence large scale as well as specially trained managers. On the contrary, we argue that family firms will have greater foreign sales than nonfamily firms when they follow global niche strategies. These strategies focus on high product and service quality and long term relationships with clients, two strategies well-suited for family firm governance. Modelling a firm’s foreign sales through a gravity model, we test our hypotheses on a large sample of firms from five European Union countries. Our results show that while family control per se reduces international sales for UK, Italian and French firms, it increases them when family-run firms based in these countries pursue global niche strategies.

Professor Desislava Dikova

Export diversity or focus? What strategy is best for first-time internationalizing SMEs from an emerging market?
Professor Desislava Dikova, Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien (WU)

Date: Thursday, 23rd October 2014
Time: 12.00
Location: Leeds University Business School G.31
Abstract:
The question how much internationalization is beneficial for emerging-market small and medium enterprises (EM SMEs) remains challenging for both international business (IB) scholars and managers. We explore export strategies of first time exporters and focus on the scope of EM SMEs internationalization activities. We tackle the question whether more focused or more diversified internationalization through exporting is beneficial for EM SMEs. We examine the impact of foreign market (geographic) diversification, product diversification and export intensity on firm performance of an entire population of EM SMEs from an emerging east European economy. In addition, we test whether a complex export strategy—an export strategy of simultaneous product- and geographic export diversification—is beneficial for EM SMEs. We use a panel population data of first time Slovenian exporters in the period 1994-2012. We find that diversified internationalization, both in terms of product- and foreign market diversity, and export intensity significantly improve productivity and sales performance for EM SMEs. Furthermore, EM SMEs with complex export strategies enjoy significantly improved productivity and sales performance.

Professor Gabriel Benito

An empirical examination of a transaction cost explanation of FDI capital structure
Professor Gabriel Benito, BI-Norwegian School of Business

Date: Tuesday 4 November 2014
Time: 15.00
Location: Leeds University Business School 1.44

Abstract
Transaction cost theory (TCT) explains multinational enterprise (MNE) boundaries, and is increasingly applied to intra-MNE governance. We apply TCT to capital structure decisions for MNE subsidiaries. Following TCT, equity and debt are not just financial instruments, but also alternative governance structures. Debt is based on market mechanisms, while equity has features of hierarchy and is important for projects involving specific assets that cannot serve as collateral, especially under conditions of strong external uncertainty. We apply the theory to the intra-MNE context, where headquarters (HQs) nominally own all assets and there may be greater redeployability of assets within firms. We argue that internal governance costs may lead HQs to re-introduce the price mechanism through debt, while imperfect HQs' ownership of and limits to the redeployability of subsidiary assets promote equity financing. Thus, even within firms, imperfections suggest a rationale for differentiated use of equity, internal debt and external debt. We test our predictions using subsidiary-level panel data on Norwegian outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from 2003 to 2006, measuring asset specificity by R&D-related variables and external uncertainty by political risk indices. We find partial support for our arguments, but robustness checks suggest the results are sensitive to measurement and estimation.