Profile

Profile Summary

Internationally recognised academic and policy advisor in credit risk and management, equity finance, and SME access to funding. Extensive impact on UK and EU policy through commissioned research, government advisory roles (HM Treasury, Department for Business and Trade, National Audit Office, British Business Bank), and REF-submitted case studies. Director of the Credit Management Research Centre and previously the spin-out CreditScorer Ltd (acquired by Bisnode AB). Principal and co-investigator on multi-million-pound UKRI (ESRC and Innovate UK) projects. Author of over 150 journal articles and policy reports (h-index 46, c.10,000 citations).

Current Research

I am Professor of Credit and Finance and Director of the Credit Management Research Centre at Leeds University Business School and Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Credit Management. My academic work focuses on credit analytics and forecasting, corporate finance and performance, private equity portfolio company performance, venture capital, governance and diversity, trade finance and entrepreneurship. I work closely with financial services and the credit industry on the development and application of analytics in lending and debt management, including artificial intelligence and neural networks, and have a keen interest in the development of financial technology. I was an associate and founding member of the Leeds Institute of Data Analytics, a co-investigator in the Consumer Data Research Centre, and co-investigator on the ESRC Productivity Institute project on small firm growth (grant ES/W010259/1).

Recent and current projects include a study for Innovate UK on the impact of innovation grants on firm-level outcomes (published 2024); research on entrepreneurial finance and crises published in Small Business Economics; analysis of the private debt market and how firms finance new investment; modelling of company insolvency and fraud classification under the COVID emergency lending programmes with the Department for Business and Trade; and a major new study on the nature, scale and regional distribution of the UK equity finance gap, covering venture capital investment in potential high-growth companies across transformative industry sectors. I am a member of the Expert Peer Review Panel for policy evaluation studies coordinated by DBT.

Phd Graduates

Robert Hope (1998); Andrew Robinson (1998); Carole Howarth (1999); Kathryn Watson (2001); Barbara Summers (2002); Paula Hill (2002); Christina V Atanasova (2004); Norazman Ismail (2007); Salima Paul (2007); Alena L Audzeyeva (2008); Duc T Le (2008); Ali Altanlar (2008); Felix Aveh (2011); Sharon K Sewards (2012); Abd Razak Ahmad (2003); Andreea Bordianu (2014); Mario Hernandez Tinoco (2014); Nnamdi J Uzonwanne (2014); Pananda Pasaribu (2016); Boon Ping Hong (2017); Mingchen Li (2021); Xinyue Cai (2023).

Responsibilities

• Director, Credit Management Research Centre
• Head of Department 2017-2021
• ESRC Productivity Project: ES/W010259/1 : SME finance, investment and productivity

Research interests

Research Impact

My research combines academic rigour with policy and practitioner relevance. Over three decades I have contributed commissioned evidence and quantitative models to HM Treasury, DBT, the National Audit Office, HMRC, the British Business Bank and the Welsh Government. Early ESRC-funded work on employee ownership, profit-sharing and firm-level productivity—including a book on Employee Share Ownership Trusts, supported by the Nuffield Foundation and the LSE Centre for Economic Performance—had direct policy impact on ownership and incentive schemes.

Subsequent work spans late-payment policy (Better Payment Practice Group member from the mid-1990s; evaluation of UK late payment legislation); public-sector debt management (NAO and HMRC studies on tax collection, the Redundancy Payment Service and the Criminal Justice System); consumer and commercial credit data sharing (government Expert Working Group, 2008); SME performance in Wales and the regions (Welsh Assembly, 2010); alternative finance for small firms (Expert Economists sub-panel, Breedon Task Force, 2012); and evaluation of government growth finance programmes including the Enterprise Finance Guarantee Scheme and Regional Investment Funds.

Recent highlights include equity-gap research that underpinned State-aid clearance for the Enterprise Investment Scheme and Venture Capital Trusts and was cited in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement 2023. Recent equity gap estimates were used directly in the development of Regional Investment Funds (e.g. Northern PowerHouse) and sector-specific analysis informing the Creative Industries Sector Plan (DBT, June 2025), which estimates an equity finance gap of up to £1.4 billion; evaluation of the British Business Bank’s Debt Fund Programme (published October 2025); and ongoing COVID loan scheme evaluation and business finance forecasting with DBT, funded by UKRI and the Innovation Caucus. Recent work on COVID loans focuses on the determinants of default, insolvency and fraud. A report on the contribution of innovations grants to firm level growth and productivity was published by UKIR

My research is published in journals including the Journal of Corporate Finance, Economic Journal, Regional Studies, British Journal of Management, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal, Entrepreneurship: Theory and Practice, British Journal of Industrial Relations, and Business History. Findings are reported regularly in the international press, including the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal, and in professional and trade publications. I have researched and written many reports for business, professional bodies and government.

Most papers and reports are available at SSRN

Qualifications

• BA (hons) Applied Economics
• Phd (Nottingham)

Professional memberships

• FICM
• Certified Management and Business Educator
• Member of Innovation Research Caucus (IRC)

Student education

LUBS2226 Applied Credit Analytics

Research groups and institutes

• Credit Management Research Centre

Current postgraduate researchers

• Aulia Herdiani