The decision dynamics of risky intertemporal choice: Preference accumulation, path dependency and delayed optimism

This is a Centre for Decision Research (CDR) Seminar taking place at Leeds University Business School on Wednesday 11 October 2017

Dr Emmanouil Konstantinidis, lecturer at Leeds University Business School, will be delivering the third presentation in the Centre for Decision Research’s 2017/18 seminar series.  

Previous research on the effects of probability (risk) and delay on decision-making has focused on examining each dimension separately, hence little is known about when these dimensions are combined into a single choice option.

Emmanouil Konstantinidis and colleagues attempted a threefold decomposition of the cognitive, psychological and normative/descriptive underpinnings of risky intertemporal choice. This included the application of sequential accumulator modelling (the Linear Ballistic Accumulator; LBA) and the use of process-tracing experimental designs. They examined the order in which information is acquired (payoff, probability, delay), transitions between information items and how preferences are constructed across time.

The results point towards a heuristic and dimension-wise evaluation of risky and delayed prospects. The research team used these observations to inform the development of a process model for risky intertemporal choice (PRITCH: Process Risky InterTemporal CHoice). Their work also provided novel experimental and behavioural directions for the study of the combined effect of risk and delay on preferential choice.

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About the speaker

Dr Emmanouil Konstantinidis

Before joining the Centre for Decision Research at the University of Leeds, Emmanouil Konstantinidis was a post-doctoral research fellow in the School of Psychology at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia (2015-2017) and the Department of Social and Decision Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, USA (2014-2015). During his time at these institutions he was involved in research projects pertaining various issues in the field of decision-making and learning, including risky decision-making, decision-making in uncertain and dynamic environments, and computational modelling thereof.

Emmanouil Konstantinidis conducted his doctoral research in the Department of Experimental Psychology at University College London (PhD awarded in 2014) and explored the role of unconscious influences on decision-making under uncertainty, incorporating experimental and computational modelling approaches. During PhD training, he spent 3 months in the Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences at Indiana University Bloomington, working on topics related to computational modelling of experience-based decision-making.