Economic Seminar Series - Quantifying the Costs of Climate Variability Using Climate Econometrics

You are invited to a seminar by Manuel Linsenmeier of Columbia University on Quantifying the Costs of Climate Variability Using Climate Econometrics.

Please register here


Temperature fluctuates from year to year, season to season, and day to day. This variability is potentially important because evidence suggests that daily temperature levels have a non-linear effect on many socioeconomic outcomes and because larger variability generally means larger uncertainty. However, many estimates of the costs of future climate change are based only on projections of annual mean temperature. This presentation reports findings from two empirical studies on the consequences of climate variability at different time scales. The work applies novel identification strategies from climate econometrics and provides evidence on additional costs of climate change that have so far been mostly overlooked. Specifically, the results for the first time suggest that interannual and seasonal temperature variability tend to lower economic activity and that seasonal temperature variability is an important driver of seasonal economic cycles. Importantly, the results also show that under future climate change some costs of variability are projected to be particularly large in relatively warm and poor regions.