Economics Seminar Series

Wednesday 1 October 2025 (Internal seminar)

Does China’s Intellectual property pilot and demonstration city influence firm's innovation performance? Presenter: Jiayi Hu, University of Leeds

Abstract:

National innovation policies are designed to stimulate firm-level innovation; however, their micro-level impacts and underlying mechanisms differ across countries. This paper examines the impacts of China’s Intellectual Property Pilot and Demonstration City (IPPDC) policy on firms’ patenting behaviour, using firm-level patent and R&D data from 2008 to 2022. Using a multi-period difference-in-difference estimator on a propensity-score-matched sample of Chinese manufacturing firms, we find that the IPPDC policy program significantly enhances firm-level innovation, primarily through increased city-level investments in science, technology, and education, which in turn stimulate corporate R&D expenditure. Significant heterogeneity exists on different sub-groups: positive impacts are pronounced among large firms but for small firms the effects are negative, firms in less competitive markets are more likely to increase innovation, and firms without separation of management and ownership are more likely to promote innovation activities. Regional differences also emerge with coastal firms prioritize technological innovation, while inland firms focus more on non-technological patents. Our findings remain robust across various checks and reveal that the policy delivers both immediate and sustained long-term effects, underscoring its success in fostering innovation.

Key Words: Intellectual Property Pilot and Demonstration City; innovation performance; CSDID; heterogeneity.

​​​​​Unions in Developing Countries.  Alex Bryson, UCL

Abstract:

The effects of trade unions on firm performance are theoretically ambiguous. The sizable empirical literature on their effects is almost exclusively confined to developed countries, particularly those in North America and Europe. We contribute to the literature by estimating union effects on firm performance in about 40,000 firms in 77 developing countries between 2002 and 2011. In doing so, we exploit standardized firmlevel data collected by the World Bank. We find positive partial correlations between unionization and firm labor productivity and wages, especially in lower-income countries.  These positive effects persist when we instrument for union presence, consistent with recent evidence of union positive effects on productivity and wages in western industrialized countries.

Wednesday 15 October 2025 (Internal seminar)

Spillover Effects of Dual-Pillar Policies Under Financial Cycle Fluctuation: Transmission Mechanisms and International Implications . Yanhao Ma, University of Leeds

Abstract: 

This paper empirically examines the regime-dependent international spillovers of dual-pillar policies—monetary and macroprudential—across four major economies (the United States, China, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone) over 2006–2024. The study constructs country-level Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) as a function of credit and housing indicators using a Cumulative Impulse Response Function (CIRF) approach and calculates regime probabilities with an MS-VAR model. Using both monthly and quarterly models, the study embeds the FCI information into a panel Time-Varying Parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) framework estimated in a Bayesian MCMC setting with stochastic volatility, and this paper then computes time-varying impulse response functions to identify monetary and macroprudential shocks. The results show pronounced regime dependence: policy shocks produce substantially larger and more persistent cross-border effects in financial booms than in recessions. The US monetary shocks generate the largest outward spillovers, consistent with the dollar’s central role and global banking linkages. Macroprudential measures exhibit more muted, tool-specific international effects and can in some cases dampen the international amplification of monetary shocks; however, they may also cause regulatory “leakage” when cross-border coordination is weak. The findings underscore the value of countercyclical macroprudential design and enhanced international policy coordination in addressing systemic risks within an interconnected financial system.

Wednesday 22 October 2025 (Internal seminar)

Does Seminar Attendance Improve Students’ Performance in Mathematics and Statistics? Barnali Basak, University of Leeds

Abstract:

The study uses the information of LUBS1275, 2024-25 cohort to investigate whether the attendance of students in mathematics and statistics seminars contributes to students’ performance in the end of semester examination. The study finds a positive association, and the results are robust after controlling for self-selection issue. Further investigation may be needed for a causal inference.

Wednesday 5 November 2025

Working Less, Living Longer: The Health Effects of The Eight-Hour Day.  Daniel Kühnle, University of Duisburg-Essen

Abstract:

Long working hours pose serious risks to workers’ health, yet credible short- and particularly long-run evidence is scarce. We study a nationwide policy trial from Sweden in 1920 that reduced the standard workweek from 55 to 48 hours--but only for selected occupations--while keeping earnings constant. Using full population data and difference-in-differences designs, we demonstrate that reduced working hours led to a 15% decline in annual mortality rates over the first six years, driven by fewer workplace accidents, serious injury at work, and deaths from heart disease. Causal forest estimators indicate particularly strong effects for older workers. Long-run effects were substantial: affected workers lived up to one year longer over the next 50 years. Our results suggest that regulating working hours, particularly in labour-intensive occupations, could yield large and lasting health benefits globally.

Wednesday 12 November 2025 (Internal seminar)

A tech-battleground over monetary sovereignty? How Brazil, China, Russia, the European Union and the United Kingdom develop Central Bank Digital Currencies.  Bianca Orsi, University of Leeds

Abstract:

During a time characterised by geopolitical uncertainty and heightened geoeconomic struggles, central banks around the world conduct research, test and already implement new financial technologies – central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). This article examines how central banks in five different jurisdictions – Brazil, Russia, the People’s Republic of China, the European Union, and the United Kingdom – use their respective CBDC projects as a form of “technopolitics” (Hecht 2011) to navigate this quickly evolving political, economic and technological environment. Using both official statements and interviews with central bankers and economic experts, we focus on two different aspects of the five CBDC projects. First, we systematically compare how the current development of CBDCs affects the relationship between central banks and financial entities in each jurisdiction. Secondly, we examine the discernible implications of CBDCs for the structuration of the international currency hierarchy. We show that while there are commonalities among CBDC projects, their specific motivations, shape, and aims depend on domestic and international realities affecting each case differently. Thus, we find that the emergence and research into CBDCs is not the result of an autonomous force (e.g. the emergence of new technologies), instead we observe close interactions of technological advancements with socio-economic and political developments.

Wednesday 19 November 2025 (Internal seminar)

The peer effect of bank ESG activities through lending network. Geyao Zhang, University of Leeds

Abstract: 

As corporate Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) strategy has received relatively high attention, financial institutions are playing an increasingly critical role in shaping corporate sustainable behavior. Although existing research has mainly focused on the internal factors that can influence firm’s ESG decision, the role of banks as external organisations who exert ESG influence through credit relationships has not been fully revealed. In this article, we explore how banks’ sustainable strategy affect the ESG performance of their borrowers. Based on a global panel dataset of 2,038 leveraged loan facilities over the period 2002 to 2023, we find that banks’ ESG strategy will significantly promote the improvement of their borrowers’ ESG performance, while designation as green bank is likewise positively related to borrowers’ ESG outcomes. The analysis addresses common endogeneity issues and includes firm and year-fixed effects. Further analysis shows that stable lending relationship between banks and borrowers can significantly enhances the ESG transmission effect, while sustainable regulation at the national level can strengthen banks’ ESG influence. Finally, we found significant ESG peer effects at the industry and regional levels, indicating that the ESG impact transmitted by banks can further spread to non direct borrowing firms. This study expands the literature on sustainable finance, revealing the communication pathways of ESG policies in credit markets.

​​​​Wednesday 26 November 2025

Punish or perish? Strategic thinking in a commons game.  Dr Atisha Ghosh, University of Bath

Abstract:

This study explores strategic decision-making in a Tragedy of the Commons game with punishment, implemented via ClassEx in two universities. The objective is to examine how students with different economic knowledge approach a resource allocation problem, while also analysing the balance between cooperation and private incentives. The game was played over multiple rounds, with students acting as resource users managing a shared pool. Punishment mechanisms allowed participants to penalise defectors at a personal cost. In each timed round, participants decided whether to extract resources or cooperate to prevent depletion. Additionally, a sample of participants completed a post-game questionnaire to capture their reasoning and strategic choices. Our results indicate that participants with prior economics knowledge demonstrated more strategic behaviour, leading to higher cooperation, compared to those without. Consistent with experimental literature on finitely repeated games, cooperation was observed in intermediate rounds but declined in the final rounds, except in the cohort where all participants had consistently more relevant economics knowledge, thereby contradicting standard theoretical predictions. Questionnaire feedback suggests that students found the game engaging and valuable for understanding strategic decision-making under time constraints. These findings reinforce the value of experiential learning, enhancing students’ ability to understand concepts through real-life examples, which support or contradict established theories.

Wednesday 3 December 2025 (Internal seminar)

The Impact of 3G Rollout on Structural Transformation in Vietnam.  Quynh Huynh, University of Leeds

Abstract:

Despite growing evidence that digital infrastructure can enhance productivity, relatively little is known about its role in shaping the labour market in developing countries. This project investigates the impact of third-generation (3G) networks on labour market outcomes in Vietnam, exploiting the staggered rollout of the 3G networks across the country. We will employ rich microdata both at the individual and firm-level to provide evidence on the impact of 3G on labour force participation, sector of employment and worker formalisation. Our analysis highlights heterogeneous effects by gender, shedding light on the extent to which mobile technologies might reduce barriers for women and support their transition into formal, higher-productivity jobs.

Wednesday 10 December 2025

Steering Finance for Net Zero: Rethinking the UK’s Green Financial Architecture.  Armağan Gezici, University of Bristol

Abstract:

The UK faces a persistent green investment gap despite an advanced regulatory and institutional landscape. This paper argues that the problem lies not in the absence of green finance measures but in their risk-based orientation: UK financial authorities focus on disclosure and risk management while leaving credit allocation to markets. Using the allocative vs risk-based policy framework, the paper systematically analyses monetary policy, capital markets regulation, strategic governance and public investment institutions. It shows how political and institutional legacies—market neutrality, central bank independence, fiscal orthodoxy—have produced a fragmented system that manages climate risks but does not steer credit flows. The paper concludes by outlining institutional pathways for a more allocative regime, integrating monetary, regulatory and public investment tools to align finance with net-zero objectives.

Wednesday 28 January 2026

What does the Capability approach contribute to employment and labour markets? Kirsten Sehnbruch, LSE

Abstract:

In this seminar, Professor Sehnbruch will present some of the introductory chapters of their forthcoming coauthored book on the capability approach and labour markets. She will first present a theoretical employment-capability framework and examine what distinguishes labour markets from other areas of human development or public policy to which the capability approach has been applied. Second, she will demonstrate the application of this framework to both economic and sociological labour market theories to examine whether the capability approach can shift how we think about them in the same way that it changed our approach to issues of human development. In doing so, the need for an inclusive approach to global labour markets will be emphasised, which is normatively sensitive to supporting the capabilities of the most vulnerable workers. Third, she will portray how an employment-capability framework can be operationalised through methods of interpersonal comparison, which account for distributional concerns both at the individual and macro level.

Wednesday 4 February 2026

Ghosts of Assessment Past: The A Level to University Transition. Annika Johnson, Bristol University.

Abstract:

From 2011 to 2023, despite no UK universities requiring A Level Economics for degree entry, between 76% and 82% of Home students starting an undergraduate degree in Economics already held an A Level in Economics (FFT Education Data Lab (2025)). This means many of our students enter their degree with a strong enthusiasm for the discipline, but also a very specific approach, already framed by the A Level. This includes their assessment expectations and it will often manifest through questions such as, ‘how many evaluation points do I need?’, ‘how many paragraphs do I need for a 24 mark question?’ and ‘why aren't there more past papers?’. By better understanding the A-level Economics assessment environment experienced by many high school students, it becomes easier to both understand why our students are asking these questions and their approach to assessment preparation. In this session I explain the A Level Economics assessment environment our students experience, why they may be asking these questions and provide examples of ways to scaffold a path towards the higher order skills required of modern undergraduates.

Wednesday 11 February 2026

AI, Gender and Fairness: How technology access reshapes evaluation and desert. Zahra Murad, Portsmouth University.

Abstract:

How does access to assistive AI affect judgments of desert? We run a two-stage online experiment with mixed-gender pairs. In a symmetric benchmark, neither worker has access to an AI tool; in an asymmetric condition, one worker is randomly given access to an AI tool. Workers first work on a task with or without access to AI and are assigned an initial bonus according to their relative performance; they then request a split of bonus. Independent spectators then reallocate the bonus, before and after observing requests. When technology is symmetric, male losers are penalized (by receiving lower transfers) relative to female losers. When AI access is known, this gender gap collapses and is replaced by a robust technology discount against AI users. Requests attenuate but do not eliminate the penalty. The results bridge gendered evaluation and fairness under unequal opportunities created by differential AI (technoogy) access, and motivate technology-neutral evaluation rules.

Wednesday 18 February 2026

Parents in the Classroom: A Scalable Model for Improving Early Child Development. Sofya Krutikova, University of Manchester.

Abstract:

Preschool enrollment has expanded rapidly in low-income countries, but improvements in quality have lagged behind. This paper evaluates a scalable model that engages parents to improve early learning in contexts where both schools and homes are constrained. We study the Lively Minds program in rural Ghana that trains mothers to deliver structured, play-based learning activities in public preschools. Using a cluster randomized controlled trial across 80 schools, we find that the program increases children’s cognitive development by 0.13 standard deviations and reduces problem behaviors, particularly among boys. The reductions in problem behaviors are driven by children of participating mothers, consistent with significant improvements in mothers’ knowledge of child development and increases in developmentally supportive interactions at home. This pattern highlights the importance of engaging parents rather than relying exclusively on classroom-based inputs delivered by teachers or paraprofessionals. Participation in the program has no adverse effects on mothers’ time use or well-being, and we show evidence that implementation quality and mothers' participation have been sustained as the program scaled to roughly one-third of rural districts nationwide in response to the findings of this evaluation. Overall, the results highlight parents as an effective and underutilized resource in poor rural settings for supporting early skill formation beyond the first 1,000 days and improving preschool quality.

Wednesday 25 February 2026

Justice for the People of Scotland? Robert McMaster, University of Glasgow.

Abstract:

The paper has two aims: First, to investigate the intersections and complementarities between conceptions of harm and Nancy Fraser’s (2023) theory of justice. Following this, we consider insights from stratification economics (Darity, 2022; Davis, 2024). We argue that the complementarity between harm and Fraser’s conception of justice provides the basis for richer investigation than the mainstream economic approach, which is predicated on a “moral  geometry” that “represses” the complexity of harm (DeMartino, 2022). Our second aim is to apply the insights of these frameworks to what we argue is a potential  injustice: the position of the people of Scotland. The UK’s decision to withdraw from the EU in the 2016 advisory referendum was politically and economically profound. Much has been 
written about this. Rather less has been considered about the morality of implementing a particular constitutional settlement on a population that did not accept the central premise of  that arrangement.

Wednesday 4 March 2026

How Teaching Quality Shapes Graduate Inequalities: Evidence from UK Higher Education. Sofia Izquierdo, University of Manchester.

Abstract:

We examine whether teaching quality improves graduate labour-market outcomes and the extent to which it can mitigate inequality within UK higher education. Using linked administrative data covering UK-domiciled and overseas undergraduates, we use within–institution–subject variation to estimate associations between teaching quality, measured using student satisfaction indicators, and post-graduation employment outcomes. We find that higher teaching quality is associated with modest but statistically significant improvements in the likelihood of securing high-skilled employment. However, substantial disparities by socioeconomic background and ethnicity persist even among students studying the same subject at the same institution. Our findings suggest that while teaching quality raises average outcomes, it has limited capacity to offset deeper structural inequalities shaping graduates’ labour-market trajectories.

Wednesday 11 March 2026

When the Fed Sneezes, Why Are Spillovers Asymmetric? The Role of Supply Chains and Credit Networks. Gulcin Ozkan, Kings College, London.

Absract:

This paper proposes a quantitative framework to examine global spillovers from Fed policy across tightening versus easing episodes several examples of which have been on display since the global financial crisis. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring: (i) occasionally binding balance sheet constraints in the financial sector with significant cross-border exposure; and (ii) global supply chains, mirroring the deepening cross-country financial connections and the emergence of global value chains. We identify clear asymmetries in the transmission of US monetary policy, with spillover effects being significantly larger during contractionary episodes, under both conventional or unconventional monetary policy changes. Importantly, global supply chains play a major role in intensifying the impact of the US monetary policy on the rest of the world, particularly during contractionary episodes, thus amplifying the scale of asymmetry in spillovers. Our findings are robust across a wide array of sensitivity tests, including alternative model structures, policy settings, and parameter calibrations.

Wednesday 18 March 2026

Labour Market Effects of Exporter Pricing Behavior: Evidence from a Developing Economy. Sushanta Mallick, Queen Mary University.

Abstract:

Despite the extensive literature on exporter pricing behaviour, the labour market consequences of exchange rate changes remain an understudied issue. Using a product-level dataset from India, we show the case of incomplete exchange rate pass-through to traded goods prices, implying adjustments through both output and input markets. Thus, we estimate the effect of currency depreciation on product (markup), labour (markdown), and combined market power, using a plant-level dataset from India. We find that currency depreciation benefits labour in exporting firms and brings wages closer to competitive wages, and these benefits are larger for managerial workers compared to non-managerial workers. Although exporters gain in terms of markup due to local currency depreciation, a significantly large decline in markdown mainly due to higher labour share leads to an overall decline in market power. We deal with endogeneity issues by identifying exogenous exchange rate shocks along with using historical industry averages as instrument for plant's export share. Furthermore, we estimate a model with the exchange rate interacted with the historical plant-level export share as a shift-share design in which exchange rate shocks are used as an instrument.  These distributional effects of currency movements bring about a novel dimension to the exchange rate pass-through literature.

Wednesday 25 March 2026

Jobs in GE – Ethan Ilzetzki, London School of Economics

Abstract:

Defense spending is the largest component of US discretionary spending and a quarter of this is spent on military personnel. This paper studies the general equilibrium effects of military employment on labor markets and the macro-economy. Military recruits have lower education than the average population on entry, but military jobs have higher skill requirements than the average civilian job. A large share of military jobs have high requirements in "hard hat" skills: similar to those required in manufacturing sectors. Using an event study around the end of the Cold War, we find that wages in occupations similar to these military jobs suffered from a 5\% hit to wages, consistent with a decline in demand for these skills. We explore the general equilibrium implications of the military as an employer with a general equilibrium model of occupational choice and human capital accumulation.

Wednesday 29 April 2026 (Internal seminar)

Using games to teach adv macroeconomics.  Antonio Rodriguez Gil, University of Leeds (CANCELLED)

Abstract:

It is common for Higher Education students, to report a disconnect between what we teach them and the real world. To bridge this gap, we introduced an experiential learning activity, two classroom games, in a final year compulsory module in Economics. In the first game, students played the role of The Secretary of the Department of Work and Pension (DWP) and were presented with an excel-based simulation that simulated different potential real live scenarios (eg., downturns, growing unemployment…). Working in groups, they were asked to experiment with different policy tools and assess their effectiveness. Similarly, in the second game, they acted as the Chair of the Bank of England (BoE), and got to set monetary policy under different settings. Students were then asked to assess the consequences of different policies. The policy comparison was also used to raise students’ awareness of cross-countries institutional differences (in terms of Labour market institutions, degree of inflation aversion…). To assess the intervention we used data collected with a purposefully designed survey. Ethical approval was guaranteed for the research. Results from the survey show that 80% of students found that our role playing games were positive for their learning. We also find that games have additional benefits, for example, 97% of students found games more conducive to interact with their peers than standard seminars, which we believe can have a positive impact in developing a sense of belonging.

Wednesday 6 May 2026

Surplus labour and structural transformation after land dispossession. Ihsaan Bassier, London School of Economics

Absract:

How does land dispossession shape structural transformation and surplus labour? We first document new cross-country stylized facts showing that land inequality, which is closely linked to historical dispossession, is strongly correlated with persistently higher surplus labour for countries across the development spectrum. Such a variant of structural transformation is consistent with a simple model in the spirit of Harris-Todaro. We then focus on South Africa to provide micro-evidence. Descriptively, South Africa stands out as a country with high land inequality and surplus labour relative to comparator countries. Combining census data with historical measures of forced removals affecting over 3.5 million people between 1960 and 1980, we compare relocation sites to similar areas, and also exploit variation in land quality across relocation sites. We find that relocation is associated with higher migration, and shifts into informality and unemployment. These findings suggest that land dispossession can durably reshape labour allocation, weakening subsistence options and generating persistent surplus labour.

If you have any questions about the seminar series, please contact diveconadmin@leeds.ac.uk.​​​​​​