UK MPs underestimate climate policy support and overestimate polarisation

Dr Lisa-Maria Tanase presented research showing UK MPs underestimate support for climate policies and overestimate polarisation, potentially limiting stronger climate action.

Earlier this week, Dr Lisa-Maria Tanase presented results of her studies of politicians’ (mis)perceptions of public support for climate policies to the Centre for Decision Research and members of the Analytics, Technology and Operations Department, Leeds University Business School.

Estimates made by 600 politicians in Belgium and 100 UK MPs were compared to polling data to reveal a significant underestimation of the public’s willingness to accept the financial impacts of climate policies, for example, installing more wind farms; tax on frequent flying. This led to extensive discussion, chewing over various aspects of the data, as Dr Tanase reported that while there was a significantly larger underestimation of public support in politicians opposed to climate policies, even supportive politicians underestimated public support.

Politicians also underestimated support from within their own party's supporters. There was also evidence of a resulting “Spiral of Silence” in Parliament: lower perceived support was associated with lower willingness to advocate for climate interventions.